How accurate are your estimates
The more you know the more certain you can be
Colin Hammond 2014-01-24
The cone of uncertainty will help guide the accuracy of your software estimates
If you are estimating at the stage of product definition, before the requirements have been specified, then you can say that your certainty is that the final size will be within -50% to +200% of your estimate.
As you progress through the project your margin certainty will narrow, but only if you work to remove variabilities.
(Jorgensen 2002 and Boehm et al. 2000)
2014-01-24